KOKOY’S WORLD CUP 2022 REFLECTIONS

Legendary Argentine striker Lionel Messi takes on two defenders in a friendly against Bolivia at Houston's BBVA Compass Stadium, September 4, 2015. Messi is one of a slew of superstar strikers to be featured in the 2022 World Cup. Photo by Kokoy Severino.

KOKOY’S WORLD CUP 2022 REFLECTIONS

By Kokoy Severino

Kokoy Severino is a career educator and nationally certified youth soccer coach in the United States who now lives in his home country of the Philippines. For over 23 years, he implemented the beautiful game as a gang-intervention program in high-poverty urban school districts in the Greater Houston area of Texas. He has also worked with economically-disadvantaged communities in the Philippines, using football to mentor youths out of poverty. He is on the coaching staff of the Football for Peace movement, the Elmer Lacknet Bedia Football Academy, and a core member of Initiatives and Hearts for Indigenous People, a collective of volunteer soccer coaches who work with youths in poverty, particularly among the marginalized ethnic minorities of the Philippines.

Yes, it is that time again when football addicts around the universe like me are preparing ourselves for our quadrennial ritual – a month-long orgy of global proportions. November begins the culmination of a three-year process of qualification involving 211 countries pushing through the competition despite facing unprecedented and most overwhelming challenges, some of which continue to this day – world-wide pandemic, international conflict, natural disaster, humanitarian crisis, injustice and revolution, uprising and coup d’etat – the masses shall not be denied the joy of our sport. Football plays on.

In solidarity with all common people around the world, I humbly submit the 2022 edition of Kokoy’s World Cup Reflections, group by group.

PART 1: Group A – Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal, Netherlands (I call this the “Group of Underdogs”)

October 31, 2022

            Whenever the World Cup is hosted by a country that is not of the traditional football powercontinents (i.e., Europe and South America), Group A typically becomes a wide-open smackdown. I have a weak spot for underdogs, so I would root for any of these Group A teams in many contexts – they’re all underdogs in their own right.

While Qatar are the newest nation added to the short list of Asian champions, it is still too soon to announce their inclusion in the top echelon of the continent alongside perennial contenders Japan, Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and now Australia since 2006. Even as hosts, Qatar remains a definite underdog, and it’s doubtful that home-desert advantage will be enough to boost them out of this Group A.

As a socially-conscious Filipino, I don’t know if I can bring myself to root for the hosts though, even though they are of my own confederation. The controversies surrounding Qatar’s awarding of host nation notwithstanding, a country that has never qualified for the World Cup until now, the reports of abusive labor practices during stadia construction bleeds my heart knowing that many of those victimized workers were undoubtedly Overseas Filipino Workers, comprising one of the largest labor groups in the country, there to endure whatever it takes to support their families back home. Concerns about the exploitation of migrant workers reported by such agencies as the UN International Labor Organization and Amnesty International prompted a backlash against the tiny Gulf hosts, leading to on-pitch protests by players during European qualifiers and calls of boycott by anti-crime officials in Norway, who just awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to Maria Ressa, founders and CEO of Philippine news agency Maria Ressa.

The Qatari government has been very proactive in trying to mitigate the negative publicity. Not only has the royalty publicly admitted that new laws have been enacted and old ones strengthened to protect the rights of migrant workers, but they have launched the flagship airline’s name (one of my favorites to fly incidentally) into the global football mass market, sponsoring some of the highest-profile clubs like Bayern Munich, AS Roma, Boca Juniors, Paris Saint-Germain and the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup and 2022-23 Nations League championship tournaments. The controversy is not lost on the fans of the world’s richest club though, as Bayern’s chief executive Oliver Kahn was forced to defend their partnership with Qatar Airways under intense questioning at a panel discussion last summer held around the allegations. Reported improvements in work conditions and laws protecting migrant workers have been attributed to the scrutiny brought on by the World Cup during these past eight years of preparation and construction. Still reports of abuses continue to emerge.

The question remains whether these improvements are effectively and consistently implemented and if they will stand the test of time after World Cup attention has faded. I am little assuaged by Qatar Airways’s sponsorship of the Philippines Football League, the top division in a poor country perpetually searching for support. I cannot help but feel the vast improvement I have observed in the quality of play in the PFL is at least partly the result of financial resources made available to the league and clubs, particularly as they have impacted the domestic youth development system, the critical piece of any national football infrastructure. There is still definitely much work to be done for years to come in player development at the youth level, so it is my hope that Qatar Airways support is in the Philippines to stay for a while and doesn’t depart in early December. Such support does not relieve the concerns around migrant labor conditions in Qatar, especially as they pertain to the welfare of our working people. It should not be an either/or proposition; just migrant worker conditions must coexist with corporate support of grassroots development programs in poor countries such as ours; one does not preclude the other. The migrant worker controversy is only one of a host of criticisms directed at the Qatari royal government, including discriminatory practices against women and the LGBTQ community.

Who are we to judge Qatar though? Is there a double-standard being applied by the West? Previous hosts have held far-from-stellar social justice records – Russia in 2018, Brazil 2014, South Africa 2010… And even future hosts have much to atone for. The governments of the United States, Mexico and Canada have all had atrocious histories of persecuting ethnic minorities and other vulnerable groups. Each of these 2026 host countries continues to grapple with their respective socio-economic inequities and injustices. Only recently has the Canadian government begun to atone for the cultural genocide perpetrated against indigenous families, with the recent revelation of mass unmarked graves containing hundreds of bodies at residential schools, a state-sponsored system largely implemented by Catholic churches aimed at eradicating First Nations cultures and languages by forcibly taking children from their parents and placing them in boarding schools where many were abused for years and where countless lives were purposely ruined or ended. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Pope Francis himself have expressed apologies, and reparations by some responsible parties have been paid, but no prosecutions have yet come to light. As we all know, the persecution of indigenous communities is by no means limited to Canada, nor even to the hemisphere; governments on all continents have been guilty of it to varying degrees.

One of the most horrifying crises in Mexico is the continued practice of enforced disappearances, many of which have been attributed to the military or police. Amnesty International reported that in 2021 alone, there were over 7600 people registered missing or forcibly disappeared. In one such recent notorious case, 43 teachers college students on their way to a protest disappeared in 2014, evidence pointing to collusion by local police. Investigations and justice are slow-moving, in many cases hindered by government authorities themselves. Just last month, after I began writing this piece, Global Justice, the watchdog group monitoring human rights abuses around the world, declared Mexico the most dangerous country for environmental activists, recording over 50 murdered in 2021, more than three-quarters of the world’s total. Many of these activists were indigenous advocates struggling for land rights.

The United States perpetrated one of the most heinous atrocities recorded in history – the systematic kidnapping, trafficking, and enslavement of millions of African people that went on for centuries, a pillar of free labor upon which the American economy was built, and left a legacy of poverty, inequity and injustice to which millions of African-American people continue to be subjected in what is now the most powerful country in the world – which their ancestors built. It is no secret that America is also the most incarcerated country in the world, a grossly disproportionate number of prisoners being people of color. Many studies conducted by Americans have presented the deep racism rooted in their own justice system.

In short, the three hosts of Canada-USA-Mexico 2026 have many skeletons in their respective closets to answer for, but we have yet to hear any Nobel Peace Prize laureates calling for a boycott three and a half years from now.

It is impossible to summarize in this brief reflection the immeasurable depth of historical injustice committed by past, present, and future World Cup hosts. So, given the concerns over Qatar’s human rights record, I would say it just falls right in line with that of other hosts past and future. Quite antithetical to the vision of peace and harmony espoused and expressed through the sport of the masses, these are some of the realities we who experience this beautiful game on a religious level must work to reconcile with its ideal, issues that constantly and consistently need to be addressed globally, with or without the World Cup.

In pure footballing terms, as is the case in every World Cup tournament, the absence of a qualifying competition can prove to be disadvantageous for the hosts, and they are challenged to find competitive environments that would provide the rigor they need to prepare for the world’s most important sporting tournament. I like what Qatar did to prepare for their World Cup. Since crashing out in the third round of the Russia 2018 qualifiers, the Qatari Maroon’s schedule has been packed. In addition to their regular international competitive circuit, including the Arabian Gulf Cup in 2019 (which they hosted), the AFC Asian Cup 2019 in UAE (which they won), the Arab Cup in 2021 (which they hosted and finished third), and the Asian World Cup Qualifiers which doubled as the qualification system for the 2023 Asian Cup (originally to be hosted by China), Qatar entered the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019 (losing to hosts USA in the semi-finals), and Copa America 2019 in Brazil (ending at the bottom of the group stage). The Maroon also participated in the European World Cup Qualifiers as guest entrants. The tournaments replicated more or less the same rigorous format and schedule as the World Cup, while the qualifiers allowed them a protracted series of international friendlies against countries with full-on top rosters (as opposed to more experimental rosters coaches field in standard friendly matches). They filled the spaces between these competitions with numerous friendlies against other national teams and clubs.

In the European qualifying campaign, Qatar played their home ties at Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen, Hungary, so all of their matches were on away soil, producing mixed results at best - with some respectable scorelines against the lesser teams of Group A Ireland, Luxembourg and Azerbaijan, but big losses to Euro powerhouses Portugal and Serbia. I’m afraid this may be a foreshadowing of what’s in store for Qatar against the Dutch on November 30. On the other foot, the Copa America campaign was disastrous for Qatar, who earned just one point in a draw against Paraguay, and accumulated a -3 goal differential against their other Group B opponents Argentina and Colombia. Although they did slightly better than Ecuador, Qatar’s World Cup opener opponents, I still would have wanted to see more impressive results from the Asian champions.

What has been genuinely impressive through this period of preparation is the emergence of Almoez Ali as one of Asia’s top strikers. The Sudan-born Ali, who plays for Qatari club side Al-Duhail, broke the record of most goals scored in a single Asian Cup tournament with nine total tallies, previously held by Iran’s legendary striker Ali Daei who scored eight in 1996. At only 26 years old, Almoez Ali is going into his first World Cup with a lot of confidence on the upward curve of his career. Currently the top scorer among active Qatari players with 39 total career international goals in 76 caps, the Maroon’s path of escaping this group stage undoubtedly goes through Almoez Ali. Clearly his teammates know how to find him on the pitch, supported by experienced veterans like midfielders Abdulaziz Hatem (98 caps) and Karim Boudiaf (111), captain and fellow striker Hassan Al-Haydos (165 with 34 goals scored), defender Boualem Khoukhi (100 with 20 goals), and stellar keeper Saad Al Sheeb (81) all in their early 30’s. None of these caps however were earned at the big dance; the entire Qatari squad are World Cup rookies with zero minutes of experience at the very highest level of the game. In fact, every player on the Maroon roster plays their club ball in the domestic Qatar Stars League.

Spanish Head Coach Felix Sanchez may have the element of mystery in the first half of the first match, but against Ecuador, who are now going into their 4^th World Cup out of arguably the toughest qualification system in the world, his Qatari Maroon will find an opponent desperate to exorcise ghosts of past failures. In the eyes of Ecuador, the match against the hosts is a must-win, their most prime opportunity to earn an immediate three precious points and poke a toe into the knockout rounds, which they have achieved only once. Ecuador will welcome the Maroon to the big dance fighting and scrapping for control of the floor like it’s their last pasillo. I’m sure Sanchez is thinking similarly, and Qatar will hang in there in the first half, showcasing their moves to the world, but they will fail to up their game in the second half when Ecuador will adjust, take charge of the music, and bounce the Maroons out of the disco. For both of these teams featured in the tournament opener, it only gets much harder after Match Night 1.

By every measure, Ecuador are the quintessential underdogs. One of only two South American countries who have never won the continental championship (Venezuela being the other) nor even played in the final, Ecuador achieved World Cup qualification for the first time in 2002, finishing in 24^th place after a first-round elimination. La Tricolor did way better in Germany 2006, making it into the Round of 16, only to be blanked and sent packing by England. In Brazil 2014, when the tournament was contested on their own doorstep, Ecuador, still mourning the tragic death of striker Chucho Benitez, were the only South American team to not survive the group stage.

I am willing to bet Ecuador are coming into Qatar with a bit of a chip on their shoulders. This is their fourth time around and I think they’ve had enough of disappointing runs and early exits. They’re coming out for some blood. Ecuador certainly have the talent for Argentinian journeyman Head Coach Gustavo Alfaro, who guided La Tri through the marathon qualifying campaign, match dates postponed and rescheduled due to global pandemic and all, to finish in the fourth spot. How the Ecuadoran National Team performs should be of keen interest to my fellow Major League Soccer watchers. Over the last year, Coach Alfaro called up a total of eight players from six different MLS clubs, the second largest contingent outside the Ecuadoran Liga Pro, just behind Liga MX’s ten. These include a trio from newly-crowned Supporters’ Shield winners LAFC – Sebas Mendez, Chiqui Palacios, and Jose Cifuentes. The latter two were critical components in LAFC’s remarkable run to the top of the league’s Western Conference. Xavier Arreaga has been a key performer in Seattle Sounders’ successes of late, most notably dominating UNAM to capture the 2022 CONCACAF Champions League trophy. Palacios, Cifuentes, and Arreaga are presenting strong cases for themselves to stay in Ecuador’s final roster for November, alongside striker Leonardo Campana who has scored 11 times in 26 outings for Inter Miami this season. The most potent attacker for Ecuador is Campana’s striking partner and captain Enner Valencia of Fenerbahçe, who leads active players with 35 goals and 74 caps. Valencia and keeper Alexander Dominguez are the only two players in Ecuador’s roster of recent call-ups with previous World Cup experience, both members of that 2014 squad.  Their leadership will be key to Ecuador’s hopes of making a dent in the group stage.

As much as I like Ecuador and as much as I wish they would break out of the group, I’m afraid a dent is all they’re going to manage after their opening match against their hapless hosts, as the hope generated by their inspired win will surely be dashed five days later when they face a resurgent Dutch team intent upon vanquishing their absence in Russia four and a half years ago. The determination of the Netherlands to retake their rightful seat among the elite is evident in the reinstallation of Louis Van Gaal for a third term at the helm. One of the most decorated football coaches in history, Van Gaal has won almost every prestigious European trophy during his tenures at Ajax, Barcelona, AZ Alkmaar, Bayern Munich, and Manchester United, earning just about every individual award possible for a coach. Internationally however, World Cup victory has eluded him. A 3^rd Place finish in 2014 remains the lone World Cup honor on his extensive resume.

Coach Van Gaal’s underachievement reflects the history of the Dutch national program. In the context of their colossal contribution to the evolution of the game, Holland’s cumulative performance at the World Cup represents a massive underachievement. The way the game is played today can be credited to the Total Football philosophy the Dutch developed and introduced to the rest of the world by Johann Cruyff’s generation in the 1970’s. Today, teams cannot win without effective implementation of some aspect of Total Football. The Ajax Amsterdam academy system has been a model for national youth development programs to emulate worldwide. Founded in 1900, the Ajax Youth Academy has been churning out world-class players generation after generation. The list of alumni includes such names as Kluivert, Davids, Rijkaard, Bergkamp, de Boer, Sneijder, Blind, de Jong, Van der Sar, Reiziger, Seedorf, Cruyff himself, and the list of stars goes on and on and on. Despite its immeasurable influence on the game, the best Holland has been able to take home is the runners-up trophy. In fact, the Netherlands holds the dubious record of most World Cup championship matches played without winning it. Three times, they’ve gotten to the top of the mountain only to roll away short. This explains why I consider the Dutch an underdog. They will, however, dominate Group A.

            Once again, Van Gaal will be charged to lead a superstar-studded squad collected from the most prestigious and most successful clubs in the world, a roster that includes Liverpool’s van Dijk, Munich’s de Ligt and Gravenberch, Barcelona’s Depay, Inter Milan’s Dumfries and de Vrij, Manchester United’s Malacia, a host of players from Eindhoven and Ajax, just to name a few. With this kind of lineup, it doesn’t come as a surprise that the Netherlands have fired their way to the top of the UEFA Nations League A Group 4 with no losses in six matches, including a 4-1 drubbing of world #2 Belgium in Brussels last June, amassing a league-best +8 goal differential. The Oranje have a lot of momentum and confidence indeed going into November. The biggest challenge the Dutch will face in the group stage will be newly-crowned African champions Senegal, my favorite team that everyone has written off.

            “Why would I want ten Ferraris, 20 diamond watches, or two planes? What would these objects do for me and for the world? I was hungry and I had to work in the field; I survived hard times, played football barefooted, I did not have an education and many other things, but today with what I earn thanks to football, I can help my people.”

These are the words of Sadio Mané, this year’s African Footballer of the Year and runner-up for the Ballon d’Or, who lead Senegal to their first continental championship in February and their second World Cup berth in a row. Mané is also the inaugural recipient of the prestigious Socrates Award, named after the former Brazil captain, co-created by the advocacy group Peace and Sport to honor athletes who have made a deep impact on social development. Through six seasons with Liverpool and now with Bayern Munich, the prolific goal-scorer has risen to superstardom while remaining a model of humility and generosity. Born in one of the poorest regions of the world, Mané has donated large portions of his earnings to improving conditions in his home village of Bambali, Senegal, financing a hospital, a school, a fuel station, and providing direct financial assistance to thousands of families in need. How could one not support such a player?

            Sadio Mané is the latest in a long line of players from the African continent to achieve stardom in European big leagues. Since as early as the 1970’s when Salif Keita (not Salif Keita the famous Malian Griot musician) earned the first African Footballer of the Year award as a member of French giants Saint-Étienne, the African diaspora has been a constant source of superstar players for clubs all over the world, from the elite leagues of Europe to even the most minor of systems, such as the Philippine Football League. Given the global scale of such a contribution, African teams have had disappointing runs at best in World Cup history. Since Egypt played one match in the 1934 tournament in Italy, a 2-4 defeat to Hungary, it took another 7 cycles of the quadrennial competition for another African representative to qualify (Morocco in 1970). It took a boycott of the 1966 edition for FIFA to finally grant Africa its own allotted spot in the tournament, as opposed to a playoff system against Asian, Oceanian, and European teams to qualify. Out of the total 43 African teams to have made the finals since 1970, only eight have managed to break out of the group stage. Whereas in Brazil 2014, five out of six South American teams rolled into the knockout rounds, only one out of six African representatives (Ghana) survived the group stage in 2010 when the competition was hosted on the continent for the first time. This underdog status cannot be more aptly applied continent-wide than to the landmass of humanity’s origin.

            Entering the tournament under everyone’s radar may serve the Lions of Teranga well. In this game, underestimating your opponent can be your death knell - just ask the USA in 1998 versus Iran and in 2017 versus Trinidad and Tobago. With a roster of stars who have made their mark at the highest club level in Europe, Senegal are poised to be the sleeper team of the tournament, starting with the man between the sticks Edouard Mendy, who has garnered a long list of silverware over the last three years with both Chelsea and the Senegalese National Team.

Winning the UEFA Champions League, the UEFA Super Cup, the Club World Cup, and the Africa Cup of Nations all in the same year, it’s a no-brainer that Mendy is the current reigning Best FIFA Men’s Goalkeeper in the world, as well as on two different continents. Mendy’s Chelsea teammate Kalidou Koulibaly has captained the Senegalese side into two successive AFCON championship matches, including the victory over Egypt in February. Koulibaly joined Chelsea this year after eight seasons with Napoli helping them win the Coppa Italia in the 2019-20 campaign. Prior to that, he won the 2012 Belgian Cup with Genk in his first season with the club. Koulibaly’s Vice-Captain Idrissa Gueye is the most capped among current Senegal players, earning an equally impressive menu of medals. Now in his second go-round with Everton, Gueye transferred back to the English Premiere League side this year after helping Paris Saint-Germain win their 9^th and 10^th Ligue 1 titles, the Coupe de France twice and the Coupe de la Ligue. Gueye made it to the Champions League semi-finals twice during his stint with PSG. Center midfielder Cheikhou Kouyaté of Nottingham Forest is also accustomed to raising trophies. During his six seasons with Anderlecht, Kouyaté won the Belgian Super Cup three times, including back-to-back 2012-2013 trophies, and the Belgian Pro League title four times, with a threepeat from 2011-12 to 2013-14.

And then there is Sadio Mané, for five seasons Mohammed Salah’s striking partner at Liverpool, accumulating 90 goals in 196 appearances, amassing an even longer list of silverware and awards. This year, Mané made a much-publicized transfer to Bayern Munich, where he has already scored five goals in the first 11 matches of the young Bundesliga season. Currently rated by many as the best player in the world, Mané is not only lauded for his speed, creativity, power and intelligence on the field, but his humility and kindness off the field. These veterans will lead the charge for the younger up-and-coming Lions of Teranga hungry for more trophies, like Watford’s Ismaila Sarr.

            But to me, the most endearing aspect of Senegal is that for the second World Cup in a row, they are the only team in the tournament coached by a dread. As a player with PSG, Aliou Cissé came in second in the 1999-2000 Coupe de la Ligue and won the now-defunct UEFA Intertoto Cup in 2001. He was a member of the 2002 Senegal squad that finished as runners-up in the African championship. Appointed to the national team manager job in 2015, Cissé has since posted an impeccable record, guiding Senegal through two successful World Cup qualifications and two AFCON finals, winning it all the second time around. With Coach Cissé’s long dreadlocks gracing the sidelines of every Senegal game, an outsider can only imagine what kind of music they jam to in the locker room.

            Senegal is the gem of Qatar 2022, positioned to crack through the quarter-final ceiling for all of Africa, leaving opposing players sitting in the grass wondering, “What in the world cup just happened?” 

            Kokoy’s predicted final Group A standings:

            1. Netherlands

            2. Senegal

            3. Ecuador

            4. Qatar           

Click here to see Part 1: Group A – Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal, Netherlands (“The Group of Underdogs”) in the Baguio Chronicle

PART 2: Group B - England, Iran, USA, Wales (“The Group of War”)

November 8, 2022

            Match Day 1 of Group B took place on February 24, 2022 when Russian forces rolled into Ukraine. Much of the world’s response was swift, including that of the footballing sector. The football associations of Poland, Czech Republic, and Ukraine all declared their refusal to play the Russian national team in the World Cup Qualifiers if results went that way. FIFA’s subsequent ejection of anything Russian, from club ownership to Champions League and corporate sponsorships, was so sweeping and so immediate, it didn’t require any European Union vote or NATO support. Not even the UN Security Council could veto it. Russia was out, and therefore Ukraine got the bye to play Scotland and then Wales, who ultimately took the final seat in Group B by eliminating the war-torn country, whose national team players had to take a break from the battlefield to hit the soccer field.

I’m not sure how I feel about the weaponization of football, certainly not because I don’t feel Russia deserves to be sanctioned and isolated for their actions. For one, it’s the subjectivity of FIFA’s decisions. Why, for example, is Saudi Arabia allowed to continue their World Cup qualification even as they bomb neighboring Yemen, the poorest country in the region, causing catastrophic destruction of civilian infrastructure thrusting millions of children on the brink of starvation? Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has lead a coalition intervening in the Yemeni civil war, further complicating its intractability. Over 400 Saudi-lead air strikes have destroyed homes, schools, hospitals, and countless other civilian structures. An estimated 130,000 people have died due to the war. Saudi blockades of Yemeni ports have hampered efforts by aid organizations providing relief for the suffering millions. Yet no one batted an eye as the Green Falcons opened the 2018 edition in a 0-5 loss to the hosts, who just happened to be Russia, and as they topped their third round group in the Asian qualifiers last March to book their Qatar ticket. Only after evidence was found of Iranian drones used by Russia in recent bombing raids of Kyiv did calls come from certain European countries for FIFA to expel Iran and replace it with themselves in Group B, namely Ukraine and Italy. It is yet to be seen how seriously FIFA is taking these suggestions, but no such clamor arose in 2015 when Iran became an active supplier of arms to Bashar El-Assad’s regime in the Syrian civil war. What about China’s ongoing manipulation of Hong Kong’s political system, whittling away at its democratic institutions and cracking down on dissent, in explicit violation of international agreements? The Chinese owners of some big-time clubs such as Inter Milan and Wolverhampton have not been stripped of their control. The United States’ all-out invasion of Iraq in 2003 was based on bogus claims that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, yet the Yanks’ World Cup campaign continued unabated in 2006 and beyond, along with that of their coalition partners. Argentina’s 1982 takeover of the Falklands ignited an international war with England, yet the Albiceleste were allowed to continue their run to win the championship in Mexico 1986. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan? The US invasion of Afghanistan? Rwandan genocide in 1994? The conflicts in East Africa causing widespread famine? Continued Israeli occupation of annexed Palestinian land? China’s qualifying matches for the 1990 World Cup continued with impunity after the Tien An Men massacre during which an estimated hundreds if not thousands (the exact number of dead is unknown) of student protesters demanding basic democratic freedoms were summarily gunned down by the military. China went on to finish in 4^th place of the final round in October 1989, a mere five months after the massacre. Yemen, Syria, Hong Kong, Afghanistan, Iran, Palestine, China, Argentina, United States, Iraq, Saudi Arabia… are all as equal as Russia and Ukraine in the membership of the Fédération Internationale de Football Association. There seems to be selective, if not biased, application of moral standards by FIFA.

            Furthermore, no evidence has been presented that Russia’s disqualification and comprehensive banishment from the football world has had any influence in deterring Putin from continuing his aggression in Ukraine. Under FIFA regulations in fact, each member country’s football association is required to function independently of government control, as it is seen not as a government agency, but as an organization belonging to the people. Any attempts by government officials to influence or otherwise involve itself in the operations of the national soccer association is considered meddling and subject to FIFA sanctions. Clubs parting ways with Putin crony owners is understandable. But disqualifying the Russian National Team is punishing the wrong people. The cancellation of Russia eliminated yet another possible tool for diplomacy, a potential breakthrough towards peace the world desperately needed. Continuation in the World Cup qualifying tournament would also have provided a prime-time platform for players to express their view of the invasion. Seeing how many common Russian citizens have reacted, it seems more than likely that Dzhikiya and Kuzyayev and company would have conveyed opposition to the war. That would have been a much more powerful message for the Russian government leadership to see and hear than the exclusion and consequent silencing of the Russian people’s voice in the world’s most popular sport.

            This is all circumspect at this point. What’s done is done. Play on!

This is however the Group of War. We can only surmise how deeply the historical conflicts between the Group B countries play into their collective and individual psyches. When Harry Kane launches a sizzling rocket towards goal, is he thinking, “Take that, you tax-evading tea-hater!” to avenge the British loss in the American Revolution? And is Matt Turner muttering to himself as he is lunging across goalmouth to make another spectacular save, “Not on my watch, you rotten red coat!”? Probably not. All political conflicts between these two staunch NATO allies have been relegated to high school textbooks. What is likely foremost on English minds is expanding the slight edge they hold in their series against the Americans on the World Cup pitch, starting way back in the 20^th century.

“The British are coming! The British are coming!” These words immortalized in American folklore are attributed to Paul Revere, who rode with William Dawes and Samuel Prescott from town to town in the middle of the night, to warn the people of an impending British attack from the surrounding Massachusetts countryside. In actuality, Revere never shouted those words, as he and his compatriots were trying to ride as discreetly as possible. Nevertheless, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow’s poem written almost a century later extolling Paul Revere’s heroic ride, at some point became the accepted version of events. Some two and a half centuries later, those words, as fabricated as they are, should nonetheless be heeded by the Yanks, the Welsh and the Iranians in preparation for the English onslaught of Group B. There is no question who are the favorites of the group.

The English have had to live under tremendous pressure to perform at the very highest levels of expectation; they are after all credited with inventing the game. As such, the English have had sporadic success. In almost 100 years’ worth of World Cups, England have made it to only one final, the one they hosted and won in 1966. Since then, the best the Three Lions have achieved has been 4^th place twice. At the continental level, the English have achieved even less. Prior to their latest outing in Euro 2020 when they finished as runners-up, England have managed to finish in third place twice. Other than that, their Euro record is littered with quarter-final and group of 16 exits and dismal group stage eliminations – in the years that they qualified.

But the British are coming in 2022. England almost pulled off the European championship in 2020, taking Italy into overtime and then relinquishing it in penalties. In the club system, since 2018, Premiere League teams have won half of both the European championships and the Club World Cup – Liverpool in 2019 and Chelsea in 2021, both all-England Champions League finals against Tottenham and Manchester City respectively. In the most recent edition last May, Real Madrid narrowly beat Liverpool to reclaim the title for their 14^th trophy. These are the warnings that the poetic Paul Revere would be riding about; this is the Great Birnam Wood creeping towards Dunsinane Hill signaling Macbeth’s impending demise. Group B opponents be warned. In classic English style, Head Coach Gareth Southgate likes to understate things, putting on a tone of royal humility, speaking of the challenges ahead, injuries and personnel out of form. Wales, Iran and the US would do well not to be taken in by such misleading psychology. With highly-decorated battle-hardened foot soldiers like Kane, Sterling, Maguire, Saka, Henderson, Pickford, the English intend to get downright colonial and control the Group B continent.

While the British look like they’re going to plant their stamp and claim every yard of grass they step on in Qatar, the indicators I see coming from the United States are portending quite the opposite. I’m afraid the Stars and Stripes have been kind of shaky lately, and I’m getting a bad feeling. The draw may look favorable to those who have a short historical memory, but 1998 is casting a long ominous shadow on the USA. The last time the Americans were drawn in a group with two European teams plus Iran, they finished in 32^nd place in a heat of 32, with zero wins, zero points, and a -4 goal differential. Americans are notorious for having very short historical memories. But I remember that 1998 tournament quite well, watching every minute of every match and every English-language and some Spanish-language pre- and post-game commentary from my living room in Houston, Texas where I was serving the public sector as educator and middle school soccer coach in nearby Pasadena school district. I remember American ESPN analysts talking repeatedly about what the USA needed to do against Yugoslavia and Germany to get the points they needed. They sounded like the match against Germany was a sure loss, but optimistic that a win against Yugoslavia would send the Yanks into the next round (captained by Thomas Dooley incidentally, the future Philippines National Team Head Coach). I kept thinking to myself, “What about Iran?” I had this distinct feeling that the USA were implying an assumption three points against the Islamic Republic were guaranteed. If the American commentators were at all reflecting what the rest of America was thinking, including the US National Team, then we’re in trouble. I couldn’t help but think that the US coaching staff and scouts just wrote Iran off, symptoms of that combination of naivete and arrogance that are hallmarks of popular American culture. The Iranians hit the pitch playing like they had everything to prove, and the US played like they had nothing to prove. Iran took no hostages that day; they dominated the field like they were guarding nuclear secrets.

This year’s unit commanded by Head Coach Gregg Berhalter are a different generation though. In 1998, six out of 22 players were on the rosters of European clubs, only two with English Premiere League giants – goalkeepers Kasey Keller who won the 1997 EFL Cup with Leicester City and Liverpool’s Brad Friedel. The other four were on lesser teams of the German and Dutch leagues. The rest of the roster were spread around Major League Soccer, then only in its third season and a very minor league by global standards. Today, top European clubs are licking their chops at the prime recruiting ground into which the United States has developed. The American player has become one of the most sought-after talent in the world. Of the 58 players Berhalter has called into the national team pool over the past 12 months for World Cup Qualifiers, CONCACAF Nations League, and various friendlies and training camps, 35 are currently under European contract. The rest are stalwarts in Major League Soccer, which in the 25 years since its inauguration has become a major destination for international stars in the hemisphere, more and more of whom are coming in their prime. And the MLS, now expanded to 32 clubs and growing, has transformed into a regular challenger to Mexico’s Liga MX for continental supremacy. Some of the most elite professional clubs in the world have established youth academies around the United States, including Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, and Chivas de Guadalajara. Every MLS club runs a youth development component, producing players with increasing caliber scouted by the top leagues in the world.

But the most elite of the forces of the Nations League champions are undeniably in Europe, spearheaded by Christian Pulisic. At only 24 years old, Pulisic has already blazed a trail where no American has gone before, garnering a long list of firsts during his stint with Chelsea – from the youngest player in club history to score a hat trick to the first US player to play in and win a Champions League final and the first American Club World Cup champion. The performance of midfielder Weston McKennie has been garnering much attention since his years at Schalke and now even more so at Juventus, where he has helped the Italian powerhouse earn some domestic silverware. Winger Tim Weah, son of the former FIFA World Player of the Year and Arthur Ashe Courage Award recipient George Weah now president of Liberia, helped his current club Lille finish atop Ligue 1 in the 2020-21 season. Since transferring to Arsenal this February after four seasons with New England, goalkeeper Matt Turner has gone undefeated in all four of his Europa League starts, including three clean sheets. Sergiño Dest spent two seasons as the first American to play for legendary Barcelona FC before he was loaned to AC Milan where he is now. These are just a few of the Americans who have been doing very well lately at the very highest club level.

Still, there are many recent signs causing unease in the United States’ immediate World Cup future.

Despite a stellar record with Chelsea, Pulisic has been frustrated by a lack of minutes under two successive coaches since the post-invasion shakeup that expelled Russian crony Roman Abramovich from its ownership ranks along with his technical staff. The US National Team Captain found playing time hard to come by during Thomas Tuchel’s year in charge and now under Graham Potter, even though the latest coach was appointed in September by Chelsea’s new American owners. Game minutes at the highest level are critical to stay in top form as the big dance approaches. America’s main man was reportedly disappointed that Chelsea had not loaned him out or sold him to an outfit in more need of his playing time by the end of the most recent transfer window. Injuries to Turner, McKennie, Dest, Leeds United’s Tyler Adams, Luca de la Torre of Celta Vigo, and Sam Vines at Royal Antwerp have cast doubt over their fitness by USA’s first match date against Wales on November 21.

A wopping 58 players in Berhalter’s rotation within the year leading up to the main event could hamper the selection’s gelling come Match Day 1. In comparison, England only had a pool of 40 players in rotation over the last year’s Nations League, World Cup Qualifiers, and various friendlies. Wales had a total of only 36 players called up in the last 12 months, and Iran 46.

This current American squad is also very young. Only 14 of the 58 Berhalter is eyeing for the final roster are over 25 years old, and only Deandre Yedlin has logged any previous World Cup minutes. After an impressive performance coming off the bench in three matches in Brazil 2014, Yedlin went on an eight-season stint with four different European clubs, joining Inter Miami this year back on home grass.

And then there is my pet peeve – the USA’s monopolization of Gold Cup hosting. For decades, I have advocated for the CONCACAF’s top championship tournament to rotate host countries, just like in all the other confederations. By keeping every Gold Cup tournament in the United States, while it may be great for us fans, it is an obstacle to the US National Team’s World Cup crusade, as it deprives players the sole opportunity they would have before the next World Cup to experience a top-level competition in foreign territory. In order to rise to the standard beyond the Group of 16, teams have to be accustomed to the tension and rigor of winning in away environments when everything is on the line. Except for the once-in-a-blue-moon instance when they are hosting, every national team in the world plays their continental championship tournament in foreign stadia, immeasurable psychological preparation especially for a young squad in an environment and format that replicates the World Cup. Every national team in the world does it, except that is the United States, who play every game of their continental championship with home-field advantage. Their seven Gold Cup championships to date should come with an asterisk *all played at home. It shouldn’t come as a surprise then when the USA posts some disappointing, and worrying, results in friendlies on foreign soil, such as the recent 0-2 loss to Japan in Dusseldorf, a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia in Murcia, Spain, both in September, and even competitive matches that do count, like the 1-1 Nations League tie in June against El Salvador in San Salvador.

With Pulisic’s playing time severely limited, key players on the casualties list, and some recent lethargic away results, the USA are walking into the World Cup on the low end of the performance spectrum. It’s looking more and more like Qatar 2022 is going to be a rebuilding year for the USA. The collective experience and memory of what it takes to succeed in the biggest and most important tournament of their lives will be the critical component to launch this young American squad into the 2026 semi-finals when they will be back at home and in a much more favorable environment for them to go further than the USA have ever gone.

With the English threatening and the Americans in a slump, the Welsh are waiting to pounce. They’re having none of that rapprochement between the two former warring states; they’ve lived in the shadow of England way too long, and they’re not so willing to forgive and forget the English invasion by King Edward I in the 1200’s, about 800 years before FIFA could apply sanctions. The Welsh are very well aware that the English are the top seed in just about everything. But they are in Qatar to ambush the English road to the next round and sabotage whatever plans they have to conquer the group. And they’re certainly not going to let any former English colony get in the way either.

Like the hosts, no member of the Wales National Team has posted a single minute of action on a World Cup finals pitch. In fact, no member of the team, player or coaching staff, was even alive in 1958 when Wales was eliminated in the quarter-finals in their first and only other World Cup tournament. The Dragons have a high-quality cadre of mature players to lead the youth, including Wales’s all-time leading scorer and Captain Gareth Bale, who just completed a much-celebrated transfer to newly-crowned MLS champions LAFC after eight seasons with Real Madrid where he scored 106 goals in 258 appearances on his way to three La Liga titles, five European championships, and three Club World Cup finals. After his exit from the storied club, Queen Elizabeth bestowed upon him the Member of the Order of the British Empire for donating over a million euros in 2020 to hospitals in Wales and Spain to help fight Covid-19. At 33 years old, Bale has proven that he can still deliver crucial minutes when everything is at stake, as evidenced by his heroic entry into the MLS championship match this past weekend. At long last, this is likely Bale’s one and only chance to win some glory for his country, along with his Vice-Captain Aaron Ramsey. Like Bale, Ramsey is accustomed to doing what it takes to raise trophies, having won an FA Cup with Cardiff City, another three with Arsenal, a Serie A title and a Coppa Italia with Juventus, and a Scottish Cup with Rangers. Bale and Ramsey will lead the Welsh defense against the English onslaught, counter-attacking on the break. The Welsh know the physical English style well, not only because they share a once-contentious border, but two-thirds of their national team pool this year currently play club ball in England, nine of them in the Premiere League. The Welsh will have no problem roughing it up with England, like they’ve done for centuries, a grudge match, the closest we will get to a rugby game in a football tournament. For this reason, when it comes down to the two teams in the group with zero to few minutes of World Cup experience – Wales and the USA – I’m afraid the Welsh have the edge.

Out of all 32 countries represented in the biggest sporting event in the universe, Iran is in the most turmoil. For the past month and a half, a growing protest movement has besieged the government, which has turned to more and more draconian measures to try and silence the Iranian people’s demands for justice and freedom. Sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in September while in the custody of Iran’s morality police, who arrested her for alleged violations of the strict dress code, this tidal wave of protest has plunged the country into the worst domestic crisis it has seen in decades. Lead by the women of Iran who have endured repressive and discriminatory laws for way too long, the movement has exploded to now include men, students, young and old, workers and intellectuals, people from diverse backgrounds all across the country. The government has responded with escalating violence. Still the movement has been spreading and growing, defying the brutality of the regime. We will see how the upheaval affects Carlos Queiroz’s squad, whether it will serve as an inspiration or a distraction. The Portuguese manager was appointed to the Iran position for a second stint and third World Cup on September 7, less than a couple of weeks before the protests began.

Qualifying for the third time in a row, there have been calls for Iran’s expulsion from the 2022 World Cup because of the government’s response to the protests and its discriminatory practices against women, including from within Iran. Again, I advocate allowing a primetime opportunity for the people’s voice to be heard on the biggest platform in the world. When Sardar Azmoun scores an equalizer against the Welsh on November 25^th, I want to see him lift the front of his jersey to reveal Mahsa Amini’s portrait and name hand-written in big bold letters on his Under Armour projected to the five billion viewers around the world watching in every country including, yes including, Iran, an image that will be tweeted and retweeted and shared and reshared millions of times. Mahsa Amini’s name and face and the struggle she represents would forever be enshrined in the annals of World Cup lore.

Is this just a fantasy dreamed up by a football idealist? It is not as far-fetched as it would seem. One of the biggest Iranian stars today, Sardar Azmoun leads active Team Melli players in goal tallies with 41 over 65 caps. Now in his second season with Beyer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, Azmoun previously spent his entire professional career in the Russian Premiere League where he collected numerous titles with Rubin Kazan and Zenit St. Petersburg. In his transfer from the former to the latter, Azmoun became the second most expensive player in Iranian football history. Today, Sardar Azmoun is among scores of Iranian celebrity athletes who have come out to publicly condemn the government regime and demand justice and freedom for the Iranian women and people. His global displays of solidarity with the protesters and the women of Iran could also be joined by one of the most lethal strikers in Iberian football today. Over four seasons in Portugal’s Primeira Liga, Mehdi Taremi has tallied 42 goals in just 78 total appearances for Rio Ave and Porto, helping the latter win the league title in 2021-22. Azmoun and Taremi would probably be joined by Iranian Captain Ehsan Hajsafi. The veteran of two World Cup campaigns, the AEK Athens left back has already had a previous run-in with the Iranian government when he was banned from the national team in 2017 for playing with his then-club Panionos against Israeli side Maccabi Tel-Aviv, to be later reinstated after he was allegedly required to post some religious messages on his social media account. Why the football association of Iran was not sanctioned by FIFA at that time for violating its non-interference laws is a question I’d like to pose to Gianni Infantino.

With the courage to defy one of the world’s cruelest and most repressive governments, I don’t think Azmoun, Taremi, Hajsafi and their Team Melli mates will find any difficulty in defying FIFA President Gianni Infantino’s letter this week to all World Cup national teams imploring them to keep politics off the field. This is my response to the FIFA President: Now is not the time for hypocrisy and prevarication. The Iranian people are putting their lives on the line for their freedom. Should the national team and Carlos Queiroz and FIFA decide to push through with Iran’s participation, then let it be to bring the Iranian people’s voice to the global stage, bring the protests onto the most sacred of sporting grounds for billions to see and hear, let the people’s representatives battle the repression and brutality of the government with the weapon of the world’s most beautiful game, the game of the masses. And if these protests against the Iranian government do not materialize on the pitch, then let the English, the Welsh, and the Americans bounce Iran out of the big dance in shame.

Kokoy’s predicted final Group B standings:

            1. England

            2. Wales

            3. USA

            4. Iran 

Click here to see Part 2: Group B - England, Iran, USA, Wales (“The Group of War”) in the Baguio Chronicle

PART 3: Group C – Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia (“The Group of Living Legends”)

November 12, 2022

            The international border that separates Mexico and the United States is the tenth longest in the world. Spanning over 3000 kilometers, it extends from the Gulf of Mexico on the eastern end, following the winding Rio Grande river across Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, Coahuila, and Chihuahua on its southern bank and Texas to its north. From the cities of Ciudad Juarez and El Paso, the border continues towards the Pacific Ocean flanked by Sonora and Baja California on the Mexican side and the US states of New Mexico, Arizona, and California. It is the most frequently crossed international border in the world, with over 350 million crossings documented annually. For centuries, this exchange of commerce and labor has contributed immeasurably to the economy on both sides and has created a unique border culture and social hierarchy. The border area offers some of the most breathtaking topography in the hemisphere, documented in films such as Gregory Nava’s classic El Norte, and North of Ojinaga by Austin-based Filipino director Rommel Eclarinal.

What the figure 350 million does not include are the countless migrants who cross into the United States clandestinely to avoid documentation and the labyrinthine immigration process for which many have no resources to pursue, in search of greener pastures and a safe haven from the desperate conditions of poverty and persecution, in the hopes that they are able to provide for their families back home and establish a more hopeful future for them and themselves. Forced into situations in which options if any are severely limited and difficult, many choose to brave the treacherous journey north in search of work and a better life, the same reasons why countless Europeans risked everything including their lives to cross an entire ocean for the New World. For those who have no choice but to take the undocumented path northwards, the alluring landscape becomes a beautiful hell, one of the most dangerous border crossings in the world over unforgiving desert terrain, replete with bandits and vigilantes on both sides of the border. Many do not survive this crossing.

            While migrants crossing the Mexico-US border hail from a variety of countries in Latin America as well as some from Asia and Africa, an overwhelming majority are Mexican nationals. Whether documented or not, these Mexican migrants form a critical component in the most powerful economy in the world, providing labor in every sector, including agriculture, industry, culinary production, music, art, education, public service, literature, child care, medicine, construction, academics, sciences, healthcare… Contrary to the racist stereotypes portraying them as sombrero-clad siesta-takers, or criminal drug-smuggling gangmembers as some recent white American politicians like to insinuate, migrants from Mexico are among the hardest-working people in the world. In my 23 years serving underprivileged recent immigrant communities in southeast Texas public sector middle schools as educator and soccer coach, I have yet to come across a student, player, parent, colleague, employee, neighbor, friend of Mexican nationality who even remotely fits that false racist caricature. Every Mexican or Mexican-American person I have ever encountered is an extremely hard worker dedicated to their family, their  ambitions and dreams, persevering through whatever hardship society has placed before them.

            It is no wonder to me then, that whenever I watch the Mexican National Team play in any competition – whether World Cup Qualifiers and Finals, Gold Cup, Olympics, or friendlies – they are hands-down, er feet-down, the hardest working team out there. This kind of work ethic lends itself perfectly to the strategic decision to which the Mexican playing style is committed. Offensively, this means continuous and fluid movement of the ball, requiring all players in the park to be in constant motion and creative mode, the ball finding its way through gaps in opposing defenses. The hallmark of Mexico’s strategy however is most evident in their defensive commitment – constant and immediate pressure starting up high, taking away opposing space on the ball and not allowing the opposition to establish a rhythm. This is a commitment that every player has made in every third of the field. It takes a tremendous amount of hard work. In this aspect, Mexico has taken the Total Football approach to its furthest application. It is a thing of beauty to behold.

            This Mexican work ethic encompasses all players on the pitch, including the man in the frame. Memo Ochoa has done well in continuing Mexico’s legacy of excellence in the goalkeeper position. Ochoa is the latest in a lineage of legendary Mexican goalkeepers going back to Antonio Carbajal, who played in five World Cup tournaments from 1950 to 1966, equaled among keepers only by Italy’s Gianluigi Buffon. Carbajal was named by the International Federation of Football History and Statistics as the top goalie in the history of the North American confederation. Known for his colorful on-pitch kit and spectacular playing style, Jorge Campos was Mexico’s #1 keeper throughout the 1990’s, representing the nation in two World Cup tournaments. In 1993, Campos was declared the third best goalkeeper in the world by IFFHS. In a career spanning 26 years in the Mexican top flight, Conejo Perez holds the record for most league matches played with 740. He won the 1999 FIFA Confederations Cup with Mexico, defeating Brazil in the final, and then going on to represent his country in the 2002 and 2010 World Cups. El Tri’s goalkeeper in the 2006 big dance Oswaldo Sanchez has won the Golden Glove award on ten different instances during league and international play. For seven straight World Cup cycles since 1994, Mexico has made it into the knockout rounds with Campos, Perez, Sanchez, and Ochoa in goal.

            Now playing in his third successive World Cup, Memo Ochoa has already written his name in the book of legendary keepers. In the 2014 edition, in a group with heavyweights Brazil, Cameroon and Croatia, Ochoa registered two shutouts, including of Brazil, and conceded only one goal as Mexico swept the group. His knack for making seemingly impossible saves would continue into 2018 in Russia. Perhaps the most definitive match of Ochoa’s career was Mexico’s opener against Germany, in which he made a total of nine saves to shut down the relentless offensive machine of the defending champions. In four total matches, Ochoa logged 25 saves for el Tri, bested only by Belgium’s Courtois with 27 in seven games. At 37 years old and 130 caps, we may be seeing Memo Ochoa for the last time in a World Cup box. In order to extend Mexico’s knockout rounds streak, Ochoa will have to play the best goalkeeping of his fabled career considering the legendary strikers he will be facing in Group C.

On November 23, Poland’s Robert Lewandowski will be the first to test Ochoa’s resolve. Since starting his pro club career in 2004, Lewandowski has accumulated a mindblowing 560 goals in 766 matches with seven different clubs. He tallied 344 of those during eight seasons with Bayern Munich where he won the Bundesliga title every single year he was there. Prior to his move to Munich, he hit the net 103 times in 187 games on his way to two league titles with Borussia Dortmund. It doesn’t look like he has slowed with age. At 34 years old, Lewandowski has moved to Barcelona and has already racked up 18 goals in 13 outings this season, including three in a Champions League trouncing of Viktoria Plzeň, becoming the first player in the competition’s history to score a hat trick with three different clubs. He has won the European Champions League, the Club World Cup, the domestic championship of two different countries and now looks to be on track for a third. Considered one of the greatest strikers of all time, Lewandowski’s list of individual awards goes on forever. Even off the pitch, he is a champion for numerous charitable causes. In 2014 during his first season with Bayern, UNICEF named Lewandowski a Goodwill Ambassador.

Conspicuously missing from Lewandowski’s long inventory of achievements is anything pertaining to the World Cup. In 2018, his only World Cup campaign thus far, he was held goalless and Poland crashed out in the group stage. At the zenith of his career, 2022 may very well be Lewandowski’s final crack at making his mark on the world’s most important tournament. The most capped player in Polish history, Lewandowski holds the record for most national team goals at 76. However, no one else in the national team pool even comes close in both goals and experience. Lewandowski remains Poland’s lone consistent offensive threat. To get past a goalkeeper like Memo Ochoa, guys like Napoli’s Piotr Zieliński and Andriusz Milik of Juventus will have to step up and play the game of their lives. Without effective support, Lewandowski will find himself struggling to find the net again.

             Since Mario Kempes scored six goals in the 1978 World Cup, including two in the final that sank Holland, a decade has not elapsed without an iconic Argentine striker in the world. After Kempes’s reign, perhaps the most iconic striker in history Diego Maradona captained the Argentine side to win the 1986 tournament, captivating the world with a dynamic and exciting playing style. The second-best player ever (the best according to some), Maradona passed the torch on to Gabriel Batistuta, who established himself as a premiere striker when he finished as top goal-scorer in the 1991 Copa America, Argentina’s 13^th continental championship. A statue of Batistuta stands in Florence where the prolific goal-scorer shot Fiorentina to Serie A glory. You can’t get any more iconic than that. Batistuta held the Argentine National Team record for most career international goals until it was surpassed by this generation’s most iconic striker. A legend in his own time, Lionel Messi became the third Argentine player to score in three different World Cup tournaments, after Maradona and Batistuta. There are not enough superlatives in my vocabulary to describe Messi’s accomplishments on the field, including a lengthy catalogue of titles, records, milestones, and championships.

Filipinos also know Messi as the player who broke Paulino Alcantara’s career goals record at Barcelona. The greatest player to emerge from the Philippines, Alcantara was born in Iloilo province and moved to Spain as a young child with his parents. In 1911, he debuted for FC Barcelona’s senior side at the age of 15, scoring three goals in his first match. By the time he retired in 1927, Alcantara had tallied 395 goals in 399 matches forever engraving his name among football legends in Spain and in the country of his birth, both of whom he represented internationally. Alcantara’s record stood for almost a century, quite a remarkable feat, especially seeing the names that graced Barcelona’s roster after him, such as Maradona, Cruyff, Ronaldinho, Ronaldo, Eto’o, Iniesta, and so on. It took no less than a Lionel Messi to break Alcantara’s record in 2014.

            Off the field, Messi is a champion in social advocacy. He has been a UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador since 2010, travelling to calamity-stricken places like Haiti after the earthquake of that year, and advocating for the rights of disabled children. Through the Leo Messi Foundation which he established in 2007, he has worked for children’s access to education, health care, and sports, financing research and investing in medical facilities around the world.

Despite Messi’s innumerable club accomplishments, international glory has eluded him. Until he finally attained his first Copa America championship in 2021 at the age of 34, Argentina finished in second place three times with him on point. In Brazil 2014, Argentina fell to Germany in Messi’s one and only World Cup final to date.

One of the undisputed favorites to take the trophy back to South America after four straight European conquests, Messi will be leading a determined and unstoppable Argentine attack in the fifth campaign of his illustrious career. Now 35 years old, Qatar may or may not be his last. In a high-profile transfer to Paris Saint-Germain last season, he has proven that he is still at the top of his game, helping the club finish his first season there as Ligue 1 champions. With Argentina, Messi has a stellar and experienced cast around him who can deliver the ball, or finish one of his spectacular assists. With high-quality support like Juventus’s Angel Di Maria and Roma’s Paulo Dybala, Messi will be leading a juggernaut offense against which Ochoa will have to produce another career-defining game to keep Mexico in it.

Group B features a tripartite duel between two of the greatest strikers and one of the greatest goalkeepers of our time.

Growing up in a diplomatic family, I personally experienced the power of football to transcend human barriers – linguistic, cultural, religious, political, social, economic... My first encounter with the game was in Beijing, China, when my father was posted there as Charge d’Affaires of the newly opened Philippine embassy in the mid-1970’s. Just about everyday after coming home from school, I would go outside to join other kids from different countries in French-speaking Africa, who would spend endless hours playing football in the parking lot of our residential compound reserved exclusively for diplomatic families. These are the kids who taught me how to play the game. It didn’t matter what social systems prevailed in our respective countries, nor our religious and cultural backgrounds, the color of our skin, economic statuses, stances of our governments on issues. We couldn’t even speak the same language. But we could all play the same game.

In 2017, the Saudi Arabian government severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing its neighbor of supporting terrorist groups in the region. Joined by several other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Yemen, and Egypt, Saudi Arabia blockaded Qatar and even threatened invasion. Efforts to mediate by Kuwaiti and American diplomats paid off and the blockade was lifted early last year. While relations between Qatar and its neighbors have been restored, analysts agree the fundamental conflict that caused the rift has yet to be resolved.

Throughout this entire episode of geopolitical instability, one thing that could not get blockaded was football. In the midst of their embargo, Bahrain, UAE, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia sent their national teams to contest the 2019 Arabian Gulf Cup hosted by Qatar, and the Asian World Cup Qualifying competition continued without a hitch. I like to think that the World Cup being hosted in the Middle East for the first time contributed to the rapprochement, pressuring the countries to get over their squabbling just in time to not spoil the biggest party in the world. I’m pretty sure the Saudis also did not want their fans blockaded from the host country, at least until early December, including women, who until 2018 the kingdom barred from spectating at football matches. (How FIFA allowed Saudi Arabia to get away with that travesty for over half a century is another question for Infantino.) With the borders open again, November 22, 26, and 30 are now looking like home matches for the Green Falcons. They’re going to need all the support they can get. The Saudis may have ended one blockade, but they are about to face another, one they will surely not get through, with or without home desert advantage.

From 1994 to 2006, Saudi Arabia had a run of four consecutive World Cup qualifications, lead by legendary goalkeeper Mohamed Al-Deayea, the most capped goalkeeper in the history of the game, and Sami Al-Jaber, the country’s second all-time leading scorer. But these two belong to a past era. Since their first qualification in USA 1994 when they surprised Morocco and upset Belgium to hurdle into the round of 16, the Saudis have posted some embarrassingly atrocious results. The last time the big dance was held in Asia, at Korea/Japan 2002, they produced their worst showing, losing all three of their group matches with zero goals scored and conceding 12. This ranks as the worst World Cup performance by a single team in the 21^st century. Cumulatively, out of the 12 matches played in their last four finals tournaments, the Saudis won one, drew two and lost the rest piling up a -27 goal differential. As representatives of the Asian Football Confederation, of which my country is a member, it’s hard to swallow that Saudi Arabia went into the ’98 edition as reigning Asian Cup champions and ’02 as the continental runners-up. In Russia 2018, they opened the tournament with a 0-5 annihilation by the hosts. I’m looking for better representation, but by the looks of Group C, the Green Falcons are once again in over their heads in 2022.

There’s really nowhere to go but up for Head Coach Hervé Renard. Appointed in 2019, Renard has produced some hopeful results, finishing at top of their Asian qualifying group. With a European coach’s mindset for development, he is no doubt wishing that the Saudi Arabian Football Federation, like the government’s policy towards women spectators, would finally relax the practice of barring their players from signing contracts abroad. Players such as midfielder Fahad Al-Muwallad of Al-Shabab and Al-Hilal forward Saleh Al-Shehri could have reached new frontiers for the Saudi program if only allowed to gain invaluable experience competing in the world’s top leagues. At 28 and 29 years old respectively, Al-Muwallad and Al-Shehri are just about at the peak of their careers now. It may be a little late for them, but certainly not for the next generation. Striker Firas Al-Buraikan is only 22 years old and has already been capped 26 times, netting six for the national team. Al-Buraikan represents the future of the Saudi program.

If the Saudis are to progress, they will have to get their players out into the best leagues in the world and globalize their game. They need to stop controlling their national players like a fossil fuel commodity. Footballers don’t devalue when they are released into the market; the inverse of that usually happens. Until then, the Green Falcons will forever be lacking that legendary player to lead them out of exile in the bottom desert and return to the oasis of the knockout rounds.       

Kokoy’s predicted final Group C standings:

            1. Argentina

            2. Mexico

            3. Poland

            4. Saudi Arabia

 

PART 4: Group D – Australia, Denmark, France, Tunisia (“The Group of Life after Death”)

November 17, 2022

            In pre-Christian Viking mythology, the souls of warriors who die in battle are gathered by Odin, the god of war, and brought to a special hall called Valhalla in Asgard the heavenly realm. On June 12, 2021, Valhalla briefly gained another warrior. In the 42^nd minute of Denmark’s opening match against Finland in the European championship, in front of a home crowd at Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium, limited due to the pandemic, Danish superstar midfielder Christian Eriksen inexplicably and suddenly collapsed on the field. No other players were near him, and he had just received a throw-in with the inside of his foot like any professional footballer does thousands of times in the course of a single match. I was one of the millions of viewers around the world witnessing this horrifying sequence unfold on live television. I sat glued to the screen as emergency medical personnel began administering CPR first and then the defibrillator, his teammates encircling the spot where Eriksen lay, a Viking ring to protect his privacy just inside the far touchline, anguish in their faces and those of the Danish and Finnish fans in the stands. The sight of Eriksen’s torso shuddering with every jolt of the defibrillator was enough to bring tears of grief to many eyes, including my own, fearing the worst.

             As a child prodigy, Eriksen was scouted by the biggest-name clubs in Europe like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea, Milan, and Manchester United. Even in his youth, Eriksen already showed the astute sagacity of a master midfielder, forgoing opportunities with these glamorous clubs, discerning that he need not go far outside Scandinavia to find the best developmental system in the world and signed on with the renowned Ajax academy. It wouldn’t take long for Eriksen to debut for the Ajax senior squad and then the Danish National Team before the end of his first full professional season, and barely 18 years old became the youngest player at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. The prototypical midfielder, Eriksen soon became a key player in Ajax’s revitalization to the top of the Eredivisie. He subsequently transferred to Tottenham Hotspur, where he put up his most impressive numbers and became best friends with Harry Kane. Together, they would lead Spurs to the European Champions League final. After eight seasons in England, Inter Milan came calling, where he played a key role in capturing the Serie A title in his second year with the club. By the time he hit the pitch against Finland on Philippine Independence Day 2021, Eriksen had amassed over a hundred club goals, and was the Danish National Team’s leading scorer among active players with 36 tallies in 109 caps.

            Clearly, Eriksen’s meteoric career was still on the upward swing when he lay motionless on a stretcher being carefully wheeled off the field by medical staff, escorted by his teammates holding up a Finnish flag, which the opposing team had lent them to shield the camera angles as the entire stadium watched in silent shock, reminiscent of how Viking warriors must have honored their fallen. The match was suspended until later in the evening when UEFA decided it had to resume. The wait was excruciating. Inside the stadium, the Finnish started chanting Eriksen’s name, joined in by the Danes. Finally, information on his condition began to trickle in. It was announced that Eriksen was awake in hospital. Finland ended up winning 1-0, but there were no celebrations after the final whistle, only a solemn march off the pitch by both sides. It was clear in all the players’ eyes they were shaken and in a state of heartbreak and distress.

            In the next couple of days, details of what transpired became public and was the story of the tournament. Eriksen had suffered a sudden cardiac arrest. At 29 years old, at the peak of his physical fitness, his heart stopped beating. By all accounts, he survived this ordeal because of the quick-thinking of Captain Simon Kjær, who sprung to action, sprinting from his defensive back position and immediately rolled his friend onto his side. The medical staff onhand at the stadium and the team doctor all worked together to save Eriksen from the clutches of death. Eriksen was only briefly welcomed in Valhalla that day, and then immediately turned away like he had arrived way too early. We Christians see his resuscitation as nothing short of a miracle.

            Even more miraculous has been Eriksen’s comeback. While in hospital, he underwent an operation implanting a cardioverter-defibrillator device designed to automatically jumpstart his heart if this happened again. A few months later, he began recuperative training. Before the world knew it, Eriksen had signed a short-term contract with Brentford in the top flight of England, making an immediate impact on the field. In just a little over a year from the day his heart stopped beating, he was back in the glamorous big-time with Manchester United on a multi-year contract. Since Eriksen’s return to international duty this past March, Denmark has been on a tear, sweeping France in the Nations League, including a 2-0 thrashing of the defending world champions in Parken Stadium, narrowly missing the final round by a single point behind group winners Croatia. I have a feeling Eriksen’s comeback story is far from over, and Denmark’s Viking horde, risen from the dead are going to pillage Group D, defending champions and all.

            In the history of the most watched sporting tournament in the world, only twice have the reigning champions repeated, and they both happened in the previous century. The most recent occurrence was by Brazil in 1958/1962, during the heyday of the greatest player ever to play the game. Prior to that, Italy repeated in the second and third editions during pre-World War II years when the tournament was far from a global event. In 1998, Brazil returned to the final after their 1994 triumph, but were summarily blown out 0-3 by hosts France. Since then, there have been no defending champions getting that far in the succeeding World Cup edition. After beating Brazil in that final, France famously flunked out in the group stage in 2002, scoring no goals and managing a draw against Uruguay. The eventual 2002 champions Brazil got shut out in the quarter-finals by France again in 2006. Italy raised the trophy in that year, but then in 2010 drew with Paraguay and New Zealand before getting eliminated in their last group game by Slovakia. After Spain dominated the 2010 tournament with their masterful indefensible tiqui-taca strategy, they were trounced by Holland in 2014, shut out by Chile, and their 3-0 win against Australia was insufficient to save them from a first round departure. The Germans went on to collect their fourth world championship that year after handing Brazil their worst defeat in recent memory to bounce the hosts out of the semi-finals 7-1 and then shut down Messi and Argentina in the final. In Russia 2018, Mexico goalkeeper Memo Ochoa played his career-defining game making save after spectacular save to repel the German defending champs in their group opener. After squeaking by Sweden, Germany needed a win against South Korea for a berth in the round of 16. The Koreans posted perhaps the greatest World Cup victory by an Asian team by sending the Germans home with a 2-0 cremation.

            Are you getting my drift here? Since the 1990’s, four out of six world champions disintegrated in the group stage. There have been no repeat champions since 1962. To put it succinctly, don’t bet on France in 2022. That 1962 Brazilian team was a one-in-a-millennium generation, a perfect confluence of greatness. Even though Pele was sidelined early in the group stage, he was the kind of player who was so great, he made other players around him rise to greatness. There has since not been, nor probably ever will be, a generation with the likes of Didi, Garrincha, Amarildo, Vavá, Zagallo, Gilmar together on the same side. No one disputes that this French squad has some great players in Mbappé, Benzema, Griezmann, Giroud, Dembélé, Varate, and Lloris, but I can’t see that special quality of greatness as a unit. France has in fact been underperforming lately. In the European championship last year, they were eliminated in the round of 16 by Switzerland. In the current European Nations League, they finished third in the group behind the aforementioned inspired Denmark, winning only one out of six matches with a disastrous -2 goal differential. This was their performance as the defending champions of the competition’s previous edition. Need I say this could be a sign of things about to come?

This doesn’t mean I won’t be rooting for Les Bleus. In the absence of David Alaba and Austria this year, France’s roster holds the sole Filipino connection in Qatar. Backup keeper Alphonse Areola’s parents immigrated to France from the Philippines before he was born. Currently on loan to West Ham in the English Premiere League, Areola shot to stardom out of the Paris Saint-Germain youth academy. He represented France internationally at youth levels, winning the U-20 World Cup in 2013, and excelled in loan stints to various clubs in France, Spain, and then England, where he became the second Filipino goalkeeper in Fulham’s history after Neal Etheridge. He returned to the PSG first team and performed so well for the French superclub that he earned a spot on the senior national team as second backup to Hugo Lloris in Russia 2018. Areola holds the distinctions of having won a World Cup championship before earning his first international cap and the only Filipino to raise the trophy. Unless some catastrophic injury happens to the highly-decorated Lloris, it is most likely we won’t see Areola off the bench at all in Qatar. However, with Lloris at 35 years old, Areola’s turn may finally arrive in 2026.

            This is Tunisia’s sixth World Cup qualification. They’ve made a habit of leaving the tournament at the group stage. For the Eagles of Carthage, the round of 16 is the proverbial promised land. They won their opener against Mexico in their very first outing in 1978 and beat Panama in their last match at Russia 2018. Sandwiched between those two victories, they tied four and lost the rest of their 15 total World Cup matches. Given the makeup of their group this time around, the Tunisians will have their work cut out for them in 2022. One thing that will help their cause is some support from the local crowd who are quite familiar with two of Tunisia’s biggest stars. For 11 seasons now, Tunisia’s captain and most capped active player Youssef Msakni has excelled in the Qatar Stars League where he has scored 86 times in 146 matches with Al-Duhail and now Al-Arabi. Tunisia’s most experienced midfielder Ferjani Sassi has appeared 24 times for Al-Duhail.

            The marquis matchup for Tunisia takes place when they face their former colonizers for the first time on a World Cup stage. In the race for colonial acquisitions between the European powers, France invaded Tunisia in the late 1800’s and established a protectorate, effectively bringing the North African territory under French rule. For over half a century, France imposed a colonial administration and exploited Tunisia’s natural resources, suppressing movements for autonomy or independence that were not compatible with French ambitions in the region, and imprisoning their leaders. Through a combination of armed resistance and shrewd negotiation lead by an intellectual elite, Tunisia eventually gained their independence from their French invaders in 1956 and formed a republic the following year.

            Three-quarters of a century’s worth of fervor that lead to Tunisian independence will manifest itself on an 80 by 120 yards rectangle when Tunisia confronts France, who by this last group match day will be hanging on by a shoelace to avoid the World Cup champions’ curse. Head Coach Jalel Khadri will lead an inspired bunch. One good sign about Tunisia’s record in each of their World Cup campaigns is that they have yet to be swept; they may have been eliminated at every group stage, but they have always managed to avoid losing every match, and consistently finished with at least a draw or a win in three games. The match against the French will be that one game for Tunisia. Msakni will inspire his crew to rise to unprecedented heights, like they have done in the Africa Cup of Nations for which they have qualified a record 15 consecutive times, and they will either draw or beat the defending champions, knocking them out of the top seed in the group going into the round of 16. And Denmark will thank them for it.

            Like the Tunisians, the Aussies have struggled historically in progressing to the knockout stage. Australia is one of the few countries in the world where soccer is not the most popular spectator sport (an exclusive club in which the Philippines is also a member, even though the typical Filipino athlete’s physique is perfectly suited for the game – don’t get me started on this). That designation by far belongs to Australian Rules Football. From 1980 to 2004, Australia were perennial finalists in the Oceania Football Confederation, winning it outright four out of six times. The top division A-League was formed in 2004 after the National Soccer League started in 1977 and then fizzled out before the turn of the century. The A-League has made some incremental progress since its inception, and now has 1a professional clubs based around the country, plus one in New Zealand. In 2006, in search of wider and stiffer competition in an effort to up their game, the Australian soccer association switched to the Asian Football Confederation. In the four Asian Cups since they joined, the Aussies have gone into the knockout rounds, capturing the continental trophy in 2015.

More than half of Australia’s World Cup squad just announced this week have wandered around Europe, like veteran Aaron Mooy now of Celtic in the Scottish top flight. Mooy started off with St. Mirren, then returned to Australia for several seasons with Western Sydney and Melbourne in the A-League. He was signed by Manchester City in England, but then immediately loaned out to Huddersfield Town and then Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premiere League. In 2020, Mooy signed a contract with Shanghai in the Chinese Super League before joining Celtic two years later. From the A-League, defender Aziz Behich spent seasons in Turkey’s Super Lig, Holland’s Eredevisie, back to Turkey and now under contract with Dundee United in Scotland. The most decorated active Socceroo is captain Matthew Ryan, who has also been around. After starting his pro career in the A-League, Ryan signed with Belgian mega Club Brugge followed by moves to Valencia and back to Belgium on loan with Genk, on to Brighton & Hove Albion and then Real Sociedad in Spain again before joining FC Copenhagen in Denmark. Forward Matthew Leckie is their most capped player and leading scorer. Leckie went to Germany and played for four different clubs in a span of eight seasons before returning to the A-League.

The careers of these veteran Aussie players, all of them now in their 30’s, reflect the Australian soccer identity. Even Harry Kewell and Tim Cahill, arguably the two greatest players to have come from down under, wandered from one country to another throughout their respective careers like they were trekking around the world, the former with six clubs in four different countries, and the latter with seven clubs in five countries in four different continents. Australia are searching for their place in the soccer universe. They have moved from one confederation to another, and their stars travel the world looking for meaning and purpose on the pitch.

            Many of these Australian veterans have been around long enough to know that the Socceroos haven’t escaped the group stage since their quarter-final showing in 2006, posting one win, two draws, and six losses on their way to a -12 goal deficit in their last three outings. To think that they went to Russia 2018 as defending Asian champions, then managing just a tie and losing two before heading back down under, is disheartening as an Asian. It’s quite unfortunate that the Socceroos were drawn back into a group with the same two European opponents as last go-round – France and Denmark. Statistically however, we will see if it turns out to be advantageous to the Aussies that one of their opponents is the defending champions. If Coach Didier Deschamps fails to prevent the French from succumbing to the post championship doldrums, then that second place spot in Group D will be up for grabs, and Australia may just discover what they’ve been wandering the universe in search of.

Kokoy’s predicted final Group D standings:

            1. Denmark

            2. France

            3. Tunisia

            4. Australia

 

PART 5: Group E – Costa Rica, Germany, Japan, Spain (“The Hungriest Group”)

November 18, 2022

            Every month, FIFA releases its official world rankings of men’s and women’s national teams. Ranks are based on a complex algorithm that calculates match results over the previous eight years, assigning points to a team’s wins depending on such variables as home or away, goals for and against, match context and significance, ranks of opponents, etc. The monthly ranking is interesting to fans all over the world. But when it comes down to the World Cup, these ranks are consequential only as it impacts the draw. Once the groups are drawn, these numbers and points become irrelevant, because at this level, any team is capable of beating any other team. When the opening whistle blows, the rankings are out the window, and it now comes down to preparation, performance, execution, and many players will say a little luck.

            Group E is the only group in Qatar whose member countries have all won their respective continental championships at least three times each. They have all repeatedly tasted what it is like and what it takes to get to the top of a major tournament. But it’s been a while for each of these countries. Japan has raised the Asian Cup four times, the most recent being in 2011. Germany and Spain each won the European championship thrice, their most recent in 1996 and 2012 respectively. Spain’s 2012 triumph was the second of a back-to-back, the only time in continental history that was achieved. Costa Rica won the championship of the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football three times during the era when the region’s premiere competition rotated hosts, before the CONCACAF Gold Cup was inaugurated in 1991. Gold Cup hosting has been monopolized by the United States since its inception. They and Mexico have since perpetually alternated as champions, except for once when Canada won it in 2000.

            Some people may feel it’s counter-intuitive to believe that Costa Rica and Japan have any chance against the two superpowers with whom they are grouped. The Europeans may be heavily favored, but that doesn’t mean the road will be easy for either of them. The Ticos and the Blue Samurais bring tremendous quality onto the pitch which the Europeans mustn’t take for granted. The two outliers will force the Bavarians and Iberians to be at the top of their game if they want to avoid an upset.

Costa Rican goalkeeper Keylor Navas knows these European superstars well. He has been mixing it up with the best of them in his five seasons with Real Madrid and the last three with Paris Saint-Germain. Considered one of the best keepers in the world, Navas has won three UEFA Champions League titles, four Club World Cups, and the domestic league of both Spain and France. Along with quality seasons in the Premiere League with Fulham and Gent in the Belgian top flight, team captain Bryan Ruiz has won the Dutch league championship with Twente and the domestic cups in both Holland and Portugal. Star striker Joel Campbell has also journeyed around Europe, winning the Greek Super League while on loan to Olympiacos. The perennial contenders for and eight-time holders of the Copa Centroamericana are no pushovers.

            The Germans should also know the Samurais very well. Outside of the German squad, Japan has the largest contingent of Bundesliga players in the tournament, not surprising given the German history of  pioneering the recruitment of Asian players into European clubs starting in the 1970’s.

The numbers of Asian footballers now thriving in the Bundesliga have been growing  exponentially in the 21^st century, and Japan have been one of the biggest contributors in this growth. Among the current generation, midfielder Ritsu Dōan has made 22 appearances this season for SC Freiburg, currently second in the table just behind Bayern Munich. Attacking midfielder Daichi Kamada captured the Europa League trophy last year in his fourth season with Eintracht Frankfurt. Japan is captained by Maya Oshida who has played 17 matches with Schalke 04 in his first year in the German top division. With Arsenal’s Takehiro Tomiyasu and leading Samurai scorer Takumi Minamino with Monaco, this Asian representative have the quality to take one of the top spots of the group if the European sector do not take heed.

            The Germans and the Spanish provide the world with some of the most intelligent and sophisticated coaching out there. So I’m quite sure Hansi Flick and Luis Enrique won’t be taking Costa Rica or Japan lightly.

By far Group E’s most distinguishing feature is that it is the only group which has drawn two former World Cup champions together. Collectively, out of all eight groups in Qatar, E is tied for the most World Cup championships won, four by Germany and one by Spain, equal with Brazil’s five in Group G. The headlining bout of the first round is clearly on the night of November 27 (3:00 am November 28 Manila time) when these two civilizations collide in what will surely go down as one of the greatest group-stage matches in World Cup history. If you must know the numbers, Germany is currently ranked #11 in the world and Spain is at #7. This is the ultimate battle for control of the ball, which is the strategic hallmark of both nations, but with distinctively contrasting styles, each reflecting their respective linguistic discourse patterns. The German style is more direct, a lot of straight lines articulated with incisive precision. The Spaniards are spiral, circular, preferring a more flowery buildup, with shorter and quicker phrases, like discourse in a romance language.

            When these two colossal rivals enter the park, every single player on both rosters are known throughout the world. This matchup is so superstar-studded on both sides, it’s like a European all-star game of massive proportions. Names like Sergio Busquets, Pablo Sarabia, Jordi Alba, Dani Carvajal, Rodri, Gavi, Koke on one side of the line; and opposing them are names like Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, Kai Havertz, Mario Götze, Leroy Sané, Leon Goretzka, and to my pleasant surprise Thomas Müller.

If you followed my Facebook posts in 2018, you will know that I had predicted Germany retaining the trophy in Russia, largely because of the offensive firepower lead by Müller who tore up the Amazon four years prior with five goals. You will also know that I ate my words, and Germany fell victim to the World Cup champions’ curse, fading at the group stage with my man Müller finishing with zilch goals, null, nichts. Müller is back in 2022. Now 33 years old, in his 15^th season with Bayern Munich for whom he has netted 230 times on his way to 11 Bundesliga titles, two Champions League trophies, two Club World Cups, and one World Cup championship, I suspect Müller is hungrier than ever. This is his fourth time around. He dominated the rainforest in 2014, and now fully intends to shred the desert in 2022.

Kokoy’s predicted final Group E standings:

            1. Germany (wins the tiebreaker by goal differential)

            2. Spain

            3. Japan

            4. Costa Rica

PART 6: Group F – Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Morocco (“The Group So Close Yet So Far”)

November 20, 2022

            “‘Almost’ doesn’t count, except for horseshoes and hand grenades.”

            I can’t recall how many times I heard that biting remark as a high school player in Texas, every time someone came close to scoring, hit the post, or a goalie got a finger on the ball to almost make a save. For Group F, this little adolescent adage seems to apply in various contexts.

            Hard-nosed Eastern bloc grit – that’s how I’ve come to characterize the Croatian style of play, exemplified by Luka Modrić and Ivan Perišić. They almost won the whole thing in 2018 with this blue-collar determination and work ethic to persevere against all odds. Almost… They hung in there with the French for the first half. If it weren’t for Mandžukić’s own goal and a costly penalty, the Croatians would have been leading at the interval. Who knows how that would have changed the complexion of the second half. The Croats were on the cusp of ultimate glory, so close yet so far.

The Croatians look again to be as determined as ever, having topped their Nations League group, including an aggregate defeat of the world champions, shutting the Blues out at the Stade de France. At 37 years old, Qatar will be Modrić’s swansong. One of the best midfielders in the game today, the Real Madrid star will take Croatia back into the knockout rounds for the third time since the breakup of the Yugoslav federation, and they’ll almost make it to the final again. Almost…

            The Moroccans have had it rough. Out of 16 matches played in the previous five finals for which they have qualified, the Atlas Lions have won only two, compiling a -8 total goal deficit. Not that they are lacking in quality; Morocco’s main man on top Hakim Ziyech has had stellar years in Holland and England. He won the Eredivisie championship with Ajax, and has gone even further with his current club Chelsea, winning the Champions League and the Club World Cup two seasons ago. Defender Achraf Hakimi has not only excelled in La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A, and now Ligue 1 – all four leagues considered the best in the world – but took home silverware for Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Paris Saint-German. Against the determined Belgians and Croatians, unless something magical happens, the Moroccans will just almost make it out of the first round.

            The crème de la crème of Canada is Alphonso Davies, currently playing some stellar ball with Bayern Munich. Davies was born in a Liberian refugee camp in Ghana. At the age of five, his family relocated to Canada where he started playing soccer in a community non-profit organization called Free Footie, an inner-city after-school program targeting economically disadvantaged youths. At 14 years old, he made it onto the youth development academy of Major League Soccer’s Vancouver Whitecaps. It didn’t take Davies long to sign a professional contract, and at 16 he not only became the second youngest player in Major League Soccer history, but the youngest to score goals. On the same day that he passed the Canadian citizenship test, he was added to the country’s senior national team pool and soon debuted as the youngest Canadian international in history. Needless to say, as he continued to shine, Davies drew the attention of top European clubs. Four months before his 18^th birthday, he signed a contract with Bayern Munich. Eventually working his way into the regular left-back rotation, he partnered with Bayern’s half-Filipino centre back David Alaba to form one of the most impregnable defenses in the world.

            Now at 22 years old, Alphonso Davies has been named an ambassador for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and has already been capped 34 times by Canada, bagging 12 international goals thus far. Davies represents the future of a program in one of the few countries where soccer is by far not the most popular spectator sport and still has plenty of evolving to do. A player like Davies can be the catalyst needed to inspire that national growth. In the meantime, 2022 will be his first World Cup and a major milestone in his development, a key step in Canada’s preparation for hosting the 2026 edition. Chances are, Canada won’t escape a first-round elimination in the next couple of weeks, but they will almost make it out. They’ll be so close, yet so far…       

            In 2018, I predicted Belgium would get to the final for the first time in their history. With guys like Lukaku, De Bruyne, Fellaini, Hazard, Kompany, and Courtois on a rampage throughout Europe, the Belgian squad was the most stacked in Russia, and coached by a genius in Roberto Martinez. That 2018 Belgium squad hit the #1 world ranking going into the World Cup finals tournament. They almost did make it to the championship game, falling in the semi-finals to the eventual champions France by the narrowest of margins. Almost…

            In 2022, the Red Devils come into Qatar as almost the top-ranked team in the world, sitting at #2 in the FIFA ranking, with the most experienced squad. Eight of the Belgian roster have over 90 caps, the most out of all 32 teams. Watching Major League Soccer in the United States over the decades, I have had the opportunity to witness some of the biggest stars come to invest the last part of their respective careers to the development of the American system. I’ve watched guys like Kaká, Thierry Henry, Ibrahimovich, and Beckham come across the pond after the peak of their European careers. What these guys brought on the field was an intelligence that clearly distinguished them from the younger generation. What they gave up in speed, they more than made up in creativity, ingenuity, and efficiency. These guys didn’t need the kind of blazing speed of their yesteryears. They had far more tools and weapons in their repertoire than everyone around them. All of them in their 30’s, they were still the best players in the park, and absolutely mesmerizing to watch. They were the masters of their art teaching the class how it’s supposed to be done.

            So when these Belgian guys arrive in the desert – Lukaku with his 102 caps, 31-year-old captain Eden Hazard and De Bruyne with 123 and 94 caps respectively, the 35-year-old deans Dries Mertens with 107 and vice-captain Jan Vertonghen with a wopping 142 caps, defender Toby Alderweireld capped 97 times at 33 years old, Axel Witsel at age 33 with 127 caps, and Courtois still considered one of the best goalkeepers in the world at 30 years old capped 97 times – what we are in for is some of the most intelligent football we will ever witness at a World Cup. With his 68 international tallies and counting, Romelu Lukaku is the fourth leading scorer of the 2022 World Cup; only the three living legends have totaled more – Cristiano Ronaldo, Messi, and Lewandowski. With this kind of experience and lethal firepower, the Belgians are packing an offensive punch that will be breathtaking to watch and which very few defenses in the world can handle. For this reason, I’m willing to stick my neck out again and predict Belgium in the final. They came so close yet so far four and a half years ago. But "almost" doesn’t count, except in horseshoes and hand grenades…

Kokoy’s predicted final Group F standings:

            1. Belgium

            2. Croatia

            3. Morocco

            4. Canada

 

PART 7: Group G – Brazil, Cameroon, Serbia, Switzerland (“The Proverbial Group of Death”)

            After every World Cup draw, pundits designate a “group of death,” in which all four teams have the greatest capability of going deep into the tournament. The term was coined by Mexican journalists after the draw for the 1970 tournament, describing the group with England, Brazil, Czechoslovakia, and Romania as “grupo de la muerte.” The 2014 group of death included eventual champions Germany, Ghana, Portugal and the USA. In 2018, Germany was back in the group of death with Mexico, South Korea, and Sweden. The defending champions of course famously died in the group stage after being shut out by Mexico and South Korea. In South Africa 2010, this designation went to Brazil, Ivory Coast, Portugal, and North Korea, Cristiano Ronaldo’s second World Cup. Sometimes, analysts can’t decide. In 2006, there were two groups of death – Group C with Argentina, Ivory Coast, Serbia and Montenegro, and Netherlands, and Group E containing Italy, Ghana, Czech Republic, and USA. There is no set formula to identify the Group of Death after each World Cup draw. It’s all completely subjective and intuitive. Some like to cite the world rankings. If we were to do that, then this year’s Group of Death would be B with England, Iran, USA, and Wales which has the highest average rank and the smallest range. Again, when it comes down to it, once the games begin, these numbers become irrelevant and it all boils down to preparation, performance, and execution.

            In my Group of Death, there are four teams who collectively have the strongest capability of going deep into the tournament.

            During Cold War era, Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was a regular qualifier for the World Cup. Between 1950 and 1990, Yugoslavia made it into the final tournament seven times, five of those graduating out of the group stage. In the post-Cold War era, they dropped the Socialist and qualified for France 1998 as the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, achieving the round of 16. The country of Serbia and Montenegro accomplished a lone qualification in 2006. The country now returns to the finals for the third time as Serbia. Regardless of name and political formation, the FIFA member now called Serbia has one of the highest and most consistent qualification rates, present a total of 13 out of 22 tournaments held, including the first one in 1930 when they entered as the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. They haven’t tasted the knockout rounds since they were the Federal Republic in 1998, so this current generation qualifying for the third time as Serbia will be on a serious mission. Lead by their star striker Aleksandar Mitrović, who has scored an astounding 50 goals in 76 international matches and 93 in 169 appearances for Fulham. Mitrović will be the guy on top that midfielder and Serbia’s most capped player Dušan Tadić will be looking for. Tadic himself is a scoring threat, having tallied 95 goals and counting in five seasons with Ajax. Tadić and Mitrović will be leading a determined Serbian drive to put them back in the latter stages of the tournament.

            The Swiss may have been a neutral party during the Cold War, but in football they definitely take sides. Of their 11 World Cup campaigns, Switzerland has broken into the knockout stages seven times. Since 1994, they have made it into the round of sixteen in 80% of their outings. I think mathematically, you can bet your francs the Swiss will raise that percentage this time around, coming to the desert with some highly decorated stars, not the least of whom is attacking midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri. With championship experience in the top leagues of Germany, Italy, England, and Switzerland, Shaqiri has won the Champions League final and the Club World Cup with both Liverpool and Bayern Munich. Captain Granit Xhaka has been a mainstay in the top two leagues of Europe – four seasons in the Bundesliga with Borussia Mönchengladbach and the past seven with Arsenal. Forward Breel Embolo of Monaco will likely line up in the match with Cameroon, providing a poignant matchup against the country of his birth. Shaqiri and Xhaka provided some of the most exciting highlights in Russia in 2018 on their way to Switzerland’s fourth round of 16 berth since 1994. They fully intend to add to that highlights reel in Qatar.

            One of the most storied teams in Africa, Cameroon are going into their eighth World Cup qualification, the most from that continent. The Indomitable Lions have won the Africa Cup of Nations five times, second only to Egypt’s seven, and finished as runners-up in the 2003 FIFA Confederations Cup, the highest achievement on the world stage by an African country. Cameroon’s history is peppered with names of superstars instrumental in putting the country on the map as a source of talent for the biggest leagues in Europe, not the least of whom is current national team Head Coach Rigobert Song who stormed through the top flights of England, Germany, France, and Turkey, featuring in four World Cup campaigns as a player.

            Song’s experience as a stellar performer in four different European leagues will come in handy for his first World Cup campaign as manager of a squad assembled from clubs in 13 different countries on four continents. Goal-scoring specialist and captain Vincent Aboubakar has bagged 11 tallies in 33 matches for Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League after successful championship stints in Portugal and Turkey. Known for a creative very exciting style of play, Aboubakar leads the Cameroonian attack with 33 goals in 91 caps, alongside Bayern Munich’s Choupo-Moting who has been instrumental in the German giants’ postseason campaigns, including a Club World Cup championship in 2020. My American friends are probably familiar with defender Olivier Mbaizo, who has been part of Philadelphia Union’s spate of successes in the 2020’s. With an inspiring coach who can relate closely with these players, it should not come as a surprise to many if Cameroon survive deep into this tournament.

            This brings me to Brazil, the perennial favorites to win every single soccer championship there is. One reason why this is the group of death is that Brazil, even at their #1 world ranking, is currently in a very vulnerable state. The team, the country, the fans may all deny this, but I can’t see them winning the championship this year. In order to understand why, one needs to look back to those championship-winning Brazilian teams of past eras. There is no doubt that the Brazil squad in the World Cup today, like all the other Brazil squads in the past, are just as loaded with talent, with guys like Thiago Silva, Casemiro, Fabinho, Dani Alves, and of course Neymar. However, the great Brazilian teams packed with phenomenal players always had a central leader on the field who was charismatic, and who had the character to command the respect of an entire team overflowing with greatness. Those championship-winning generations were lead by guys like Cafu and Ronaldinho, Romario and Dunga, Socrates and Garrincha, and of course the greatest player of all time Pele. It’s that charismatic inspiring figure that a Brazil needs to unify the overwhelmingly talented collection of players they inevitably come to the World Cup with.

            Brazil has not had that kind of leadership in a long while, and they still don’t. Consensus is that Neymar is the best Brazilian player today. Beyond a doubt, Neymar is the best player among a collection of great Brazilian players. He is his national team’s leading scorer with 75 goals. For the three clubs he has played for professionally, Neymar has tallied 357 in 573 games with Santos, Barcelona, and Paris Saint-Germain. He scores goals; that’s what he does. But I don’t see the kind of leadership in Neymar that inspires and unites a squad of great players. In any case, Qatar 2022 is Neymar’s tournament; it’s his turn in the Brazilian limelight. He will produce some great performances along with the other great players on the Brazilian squad. But that’s the problem I’m seeing – without that leader to unite them as a team, Brazil will be just another group of great players in Qatar.

Kokoy’s predicted final Group G standings:

           It’s a toss-up between

Brazil, Cameroon, Serbia, and Switzerland                   

PART 8: Group H – Ghana, Portugal, South Korea, Uruguay (“The Group of Asia’s Hope”)

            The most recent match South Korea played in the World Cup made history. With the team on the brink of first-round elimination in Russia, South Korea faced defending champions Germany in their final group match needing to win by a margin of two goals in order to stay alive, and Mexico needed to beat Sweden in the other game for the Asian representatives to go through to the next round. The match was later hailed as the “Miracle of Kazan,” so you can extrapolate what the result was. However, South Korea still got eliminated because Sweden ended up beating Mexico. Still, this historic victory has helped to catalyze South Korean determination.

            Now going into their tenth consecutive World Cup, the Warriors of Taegeuk are led by no less than Son Heung-Min, who has been trailblazing for Asia though the Premiere League with Tottenham for the last eight seasons, winning awards and achieving levels of success less than a handful of Asian players have reached in Europe. The generation Son leads may have the best chance of getting past a statistically dismal history at the World Cup. Out of the 34 matches South Korea has contested, they have won only six, drawing nine and losing 19 to compile an embarrassing -36 goal deficit. This includes the seven matches they hosted in 2002 when they reached the semi-finals, the one and only time an Asian country has gotten that deep. Since then, South Korea has not produced back-to-back World Cup wins. In their first World Cup match since their monumental thrashing of Germany, they may indeed break that streak against Uruguay.

            Lead by one of this tournament’s numerous star strikers Luis Suarez, who bit himself into World Cup infamy when he sank his incisors into Italian defender Giorgio Chiellini’s shoulder in a critical group stage match, his third such incident for which he was suspended by FIFA. Uruguay’s star-studded generation who taken the South American powerhouse into the knockout stage for three consecutive World Cups are all upwards of 35 years old. Suarez and Edinson Cavani, the two current leading scorers, and defender Martin Caceres of LA Galaxy are all 35 years old. Captain Diego Godin and keeper Fernando Muslera are 36. Uruguay managed to finish the South American qualifying campaign with these guys by winning just eight of their 18 games. Whether they still have the teeth to get it done will be acutely tested by a South Korean squad on a roll. 

            Nine-time African Cup of Nations finalists Ghana enter this tournament as the bottom seed. But don’t let Ghana’s #61 ranking fool you. The Black Stars’ roster is stacked with players based in the big leagues. All but four are under contract in Europe, with a couple of them of heroic pedigree. This will be striker Jordan Ayew’s second time around in the World Cup. The son of the legendary Abedi Pele who captained the Ghanaian national team to Cup of Nations glory, Ayew continued his father’s legacy of success in Europe, winning the Ligue 1 title once and the Coupe de la Ligue three times with Marseille. Now in his ninth season in the English Premiere League, Ayew is the current Ghanaian second-leading scorer among active players, tied with his father’s total at 19 goals. The top goal-scorer on the current national team is Jordan’s older brother André, who is also Ghana’s most capped player. Now with Al Sadd in the Saudi top flight, André made his mark in Europe, with six seasons at Marseille, winning two Coupes de la Ligue with his brother. Ghana have the potential to break out of the group stage; they’ve done it twice before. With the Ayew brothers now in their early 30’s, with their legendary father looking on, this may be the Black Stars’ best chance to do it again.

            When I first watched Cristiano Ronaldo play, I couldn’t help but feel a little disgusted. It was the 2006 World Cup, and he was being heralded as the next great megastar and expectations were indeed high for the 21-year-old’s first World Cup. My first impression was that of a ball-hogging prima donna. Whenever CR got the ball, he held on to it so long, he took the team out of rhythm, leaving Luis Figo, Tiago, Simão, Nuno Valente and company standing around because no one knew what he was going to do with it. He complained a lot and carried the demeanor of someone constantly frustrated. That was my first impression of CR. You know what they say about first impressions….

            The great Portuguese striker has had a stellar career beyond a doubt. There is no need to go into the details of his endless club accomplishments. One of the biggest and most recognizable sporting figures of the 21^st century, CR regularly garners global media attention to his every match, every championship, every court case, every scandal, every club move, and every shortcoming. Would you expect anything else around the highest-paid athlete in the world, according to Forbes magazine, the authority on highest-paid athletes in the world? Internationally however is where one of the biggest sporting figures of the 21^st century has struggled to achieve. Like his South American counterpart Lionel Messi, with whom he has famously competed for the mantle of greatest player of his generation, CR didn’t win his continental championship until later in his career in 2016, and World Cup success continues to elude him. He and Messi both may end their careers as highlights on the list of great players who never won a World Cup.

            Ronaldo has impeccable timing on the field, a key competency that has enabled him to run up a total 701 career goals for Sporting CP, Real Madrid, Juventus, and Manchester United and 117 for the national team. But I have to question his timing off the field. His now infamous interview with Piers Morgan could have waited until after the World Cup. He didn’t need to air all of his grievances against his current club Man U to the world like it was Festivus for the Rest of Us with less than two weeks to go before Portugal’s opening match against Ghana. He may be personally accustomed to drawing media attention to himself for all the wrong reasons, but there is no telling how this kind of distraction can affect the team. But then again, Cristiano Ronaldo has to make it all about him. He hogs the limelight like he hogs the ball, and everyone else will be left standing around wondering what he’s going to do with it.

Kokoy’s predicted final Group H standings:

            1. Uruguay                                                         

            2. South Korea

            3. Portugal

            4. Ghana

"Life is not a journey, but a pilgrimage..."

- Kokoy Severino has been in a constant state of travel since he was four years old.

Photo by Dad.